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Johnny Crow

It is good to hear they dodged the bullet. My parents live down in Florida and I always worry about them. I have never been to New Orleans but I would love to go someday, everyone says it is a wonderful city.

I am not sure about the Global Warming debate. In fact a lot of the reports I have read aren't conclusive at all. In fact if you remember during the 70's there was this big hubub of the world going into a new ice age. They were wrong then, and a lot of the same people are now talking about global warming. The only real difference in temperature has been 1 degree over the past 100 years, and there has been no decline in society since then. In fact in most areas of the world things have only increased. I am not saying that things haven't been weird but I believe it is a natural fluxuation of mother nature. You should check more information out at these places:

http://www.lomborg.com/books.htm

http://www.greenspirit.com/index.cfm

http://www.cato.org/

Jeff

It's not just surface air temperature that is a problem, though, even if the average (which is what that is--it's higher in certain areas, particularly urban areas, and lesser in others, averaging to 1%). Ocean temperature is a greater force on weather than air temperature, and we're seeing more and more effects of increasingly warm water. Warmer water creates larger waves, and carries heat poleward, resulting in the massive reductions we're seeing in polar icecaps.

Warming is affecting forests in the Sierras and Rockies, enabling devastating infestations by pine bark beetles and other pests (not to mention wet winters in areas suffering drought feeding record wildfires.

Also at issue is the speed at which the change is happening--faster now than ever in recorded or observable history. Yes, gradual climate change happens naturally, but what's happening now isn't natural. The World Meteorolgical Association (http://www.meteo.org/wmo.htm), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch/) and the National Academy of Sciences (http://www.nasonline.org/site/PageServer) all agree that Global Warming is happening and that humans are most likely responsible for it. In fact, the President of the National Academy of Sciences testified before a Senate committee last month, saying in part:

"The Earth is warming. Weather station records and ship-based observations indicate that global mean surface air temperature increased about 0.7oF (0.4oC) since the early 1970’s (See Figure). Although the magnitude of warming varies locally, the warming trend is spatially widespread and is consistent with an array of other evidence (including melting glaciers and ice caps, sea level rise, extended growing seasons, and changes in the geographical distributions of plant and animal species). The ocean, which represents the largest reservoir of heat in the climate system, has warmed by about 0.12oF (0.06oC) averaged over the layer extending from the surface down to 750 feet, since 1993. Recent studies have shown that the observed heat storage in the oceans is consistent with expected impacts of a human-enhanced greenhouse effect.

The observed warming has not proceeded at a uniform rate. Virtually all the 20th century warming in global surface air temperature occurred between the early 1900s and the 1940s and from the 1970s until today, with a slight cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during the interim decades. The causes of these irregularities and the disparities in the timing are not completely understood, but the warming trend in global-average surface temperature observations during the past 30 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially greater than the average rate of warming during the twentieth century.

Laboratory measurements of gases trapped in dated ice cores have shown that for hundreds of thousands of years, changes in temperature have closely tracked atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Burning fossil fuel for energy, industrial processes, and transportation releases carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now at its highest level in 400,000 years and continues to rise.

Nearly all climate scientists today believe that much of Earth’s current warming has been caused by increases in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mostly from the burning of fossil fuels. The degree of confidence in this conclusion is higher today than it was 10, or even 5 years ago, but uncertainties remain. As stated in the Academies 2001 report, “the changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability.”

The Director of the National Climactic Data Center testified similarly before the Senate in 2001 (http://www.senate.gov/~gov_affairs/071801_karl.htm). One of the interesting things he said was: "It is likely that the frequency of heavy and extreme precipitation events has increased as global temperatures have risen. This is particularly evident in areas where precipitation has increased, primarily in the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Other extremes have decreased such as the frequency of extremely cold weather and the frequency of frost during the period of the instrumental record , e.g., 50 to 200 years depending on location."

The NCDC also has a Global Warming FAQ here: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html

I have read some of Lomborg's work and ideas, but have also read many far more convincing studies debunking his theories, his research, and his conclusions. At any rate, he's not a real scientist, and a professor of statistics, not even a real statistician. My tendency is to believe actual working scientists like the ones I've quoted above vs. non-scientists or partisan groups like Cato.

Johnny Crow

Jeff,

Thank you for all that information, it really has helped me to see a lot more than I have before. I didn't know Lomborg wasn't a scientist, In fact I have only recently started reading about global warming and such. I have read some reports from the NOAA, and have heard some of the testimony that you linked. I will read more of this and though I have already changed my mind on a lot of this, hopefully I will find more of it, and understand it accordingly. It's good to know there are people like you out there.

Thanks.

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